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EQUITY VALUATIONS WEEKLY – Equity valuations are still very high

In September, stock markets are correcting the huge gains from the previous five months. The broadest global stock index MSCI All Country World is currently minus 3.5% in September. I believe that slight declines in stock markets could continue in the coming days and weeks, as...

CHART OF THE WEEK – ECB money printing continues at a very high speed

ECB continues its massive monetary stimulus through its asset purchases, quantitative easing or money printing programs. ECB's balance sheet has increased by an unprecedented 38% since the beginning of this year, from 4.7 trillion euros to the current 6.5 trillion euros.

BOND MARKETS WEEKLY – European investment grade corporate bonds are not cheap anymore

Despite the global Covid-19 pandemic and the deepest economic recession since the Great Depression of the 1930s, European investment grade corporate bonds have performed very well so far this year, with their index up 0.9% since the beginning of the year.

EQUITY VALUATIONS WEEKLY – Equity valuations are still very high

In September, stock markets are correcting the huge gains from the previous five months. The broadest global stock index MSCI All Country World is currently minus 4.6% in September. I believe that slight declines in stock markets could continue in the coming days and weeks, as...

FINANCIAL MARKETS WEEKLY – Global stock markets stabilized

After the previous two weeks of slight declines, global equities stabilized last week. The broadest global stock index MSCI All Country World recorded a slight gain of 0.2%. At the same time, equities in the US did not perform well, as the S&P 500 index depreciated by 0.6%...

CHART OF THE WEEK – Global debt, Japanese scenario, zombification of the economy and stock returns

I believe that the Japanese scenario is highly likely for both the European Union and the United States. At its meeting yesterday, the Fed confirmed that it will keep key interest rates at zero until at least 2023. The ECB will behave in the same way.

BOND MARKETS WEEKLY – Global creditworthiness has been eroding for four decades

According to data from the rating agency S&P, the global creditworthiness of non-financial corporations has been eroding for four decades. This development is illustrated in the following chart. We see on it the structure of credit ratings of the S&P agency according...

EQUITY VALUATIONS WEEKLY – Equity valuations still indicate below-average expected returns

In September, stock markets are correcting the huge gains from the previous five months. The broadest global stock index MSCI All Country World is currently minus 2.1% in September. I believe that slight declines in stock markets could continue in the coming days and weeks, as...

FINANCIAL MARKETS WEEKLY – Global stock markets continued to decline

Global stock markets continued to decline last week. The broadest global index MSCI All Country World weakened by 1.2%. Again, we did not witness any significant catalyst. Therefore it was probably a continuation profit-taking after very strong growth from the previous five...

CHART OF THE WEEK – Global stock and bond markets are the most expensive in history

Deutsche Bank has created an excellent chart showing the combined global stock and bond valuation over the last 160 years since 1860. The result is unlikely to surprise anyone. The combined global stock and bond valuation is currently the highest in history.  

• chart of the week

BOND MARKETS WEEKLY – European high-yields are still attractive

We evaluate the attractiveness of corporate bonds according to credit margins or credit spreads, which indicate a yield premium above risk-free interest rates. In the case of European corporate bonds with a non-investment speculative rating (high-yield), their index of average...

EQUITY VALUATIONS WEEKLY – Equity valuations are still very high

Stock markets have been slightly correcting their previous huge gains since last week without an obvious catalyst. The broadest global stock index MSCI All Country World is currently minus 1.8% in September. However, it has been up 1.6% since the beginning of the year.

FINANCIAL MARKETS WEEKLY – Global stock markets recorded a small correction

According to the broadest MSCI All Country World index, global stock markets weakened by 2.3% last week, recording a more significant correction after a long time. At the same time, we did not witness any significant catalyst. It seems that global stock markets simply needed a...

CHART OF THE WEEK – Global stock markets have significantly detached from corporate fundamentals

Despite the global pandemic Covid-19 and the deepest economic recession since the Great Depression of the 1930s, global stock markets have exceeded all expectations since the beginning of the year, with the broadest global equity index MSCI All Country World recording a gain...

• chart of the week

BOND MARKETS WEEKLY – Volume of negative yielding bonds is USD 14 trillion globally

Global bond markets have so far experienced an extremely successful period this year, with the broadest global bond index, Bloomberg Barclays, recording a gain of 6.3% since the beginning of the year. Therefore bonds have clearly demonstrated diversification benefits during...

• Bonds

EQUITY VALUATIONS WEEKLY – US stocks are overvalued by 50%

The main US stock index S&P 500 has recorded a superior gain of +8% since the beginning of the year. However, we believe that US stocks are currently significantly overvalued. Based on our valuation model, which is based on data since 2002, we have come to the conclusion...

• Equity valuations

FINANCIAL MARKETS WEEKLY – Global stock markets grew strongly

Fed is changing its monetary policy strategy. It announced the change on Thursday, August 27. The US Federal Reserve will no longer target inflation at 2%, but will focus over time on achieving average inflation of 2 % (average inflation targeting – AIT).

• Financial markets weekly

CHART OF THE WEEK – Global stocks market cap at a new all-time high of USD 90.1 trillion

Total global stock market capitalization, or total market value of all exchange-traded corporations worldwide, has reached a new historical record of USD 90.1 trillion. This is also reflected in the value of our global composite proprietary equity valuation, which currently...

• chart of the week

BOND MARKETS WEEKLY – As a global asset class, bonds are the most expensive in history, part two

Global bond markets have so far experienced an extremely successful period this year, with the broadest global bond index, Bloomberg Barclays, recording a gain of 5.9% since the beginning of the year. Therefore bonds have clearly demonstrated diversification benefits during...

• Bonds

EQUITY VALUATIONS WEEKLY – Margin adjusted P/E indicates overvaluation of global stock markets

According to the broadest MSCI All Country World index, global stock markets have strengthened by 1% in the last week. As a result, our global composite proprietary equity valuation increased from +30% to +31%, which is still the highest level since the middle of 2002. It is...