Conseq - News

DAILY SKETCH - The volume of global debt at a new all-time high

01. 02. 2021

According to calculations by the Swiss bank UBS, the volume of global debt reached a new all-time high at the level of $ 280 trillion at the end of last year. At the same time, the ratio of global debt to global GDP also reached a new all-time high of 365%. So the world is...

Daily sketch

FINANCIAL MARKETS WEEKLY - Stock markets recorded a correction

01. 02. 2021

Last week financial markets recorded a correction. We have not seen any major news, maybe apart from the new IMF’s World Economic Outlook. In this heavily followed document IMF stressed that the continuation of the global economic recovery is highly dependent on...

Financial markets weekly

DAILY SKETCH - Global money supply growth was record-breaking last year

29. 01. 2021

Global money supply grew by $ 15 trillion last year, the fastest pace in history. The record of 2017 at the level of 8 trillion dollars was significantly exceeded. Behind this last year's growth in the volume of money in the global financial system, let us look for nothing...

Daily sketch

DAILY SKETCH - Look primarily at the quantitative easing aka money printing behind the stock market

28. 01. 2021

Investors often discuss the factors behind current stock market records. After all, the total global stock market capitalization is currently at an all-time high of $ 107 trillion. No, it is not the dynamics of GDP, inflation, interest rates, or corporate fundamentals such as...

Daily sketch

DAILY SKETCH - Bond investors have a very difficult time now

27. 01. 2021

The main indicator of the attractiveness of bonds is the yield to maturity (YTM), which indicates the expected return on holding the bond, if the investor will hold it until its maturity.

Daily sketch

DAILY SKETCH - Warren Buffett's valuation indicator at a new all-time high

26. 01. 2021

Global stock markets are at new all-time highs. Equity valuations are also extremely high. This fact is also indicated by Warren Buffett's global valuation indicator, which is defined as the ratio of the total global stock market capitalization, i.e. the total value of all...

Daily sketch

FINANCIAL MARKETS WEEKLY - Stock markets recorded gains

25. 01. 2021

Last week, investors watched the inauguration of the new US President Joe Biden and the regular meeting of the European Central Bank. However, investors did not receive any significant news regarding the monetary policy stance of the European monetary authority.

Financial markets weekly

DAILY SKETCH - Emerging markets are making us happy so far this year

25. 01. 2021

So far this year, our major equity is doing great. According to the MSCI Emerging Markets index, emerging markets are currently attributing a profit of 7.9% this year, while developed markets are attributing a profit of "only" 2.4% according to the MSCI World index...

Daily sketch

DAILY SKETCH – Emerging markets remain our major equity bet

22. 01. 2021

Emerging markets remain our major equity bet. At the same time, within emerging markets, we rely primarily on emerging markets in Asia, led by China and Central Europe.

Daily sketch

DAILY SKETCH - On the relative basis stocks are not overvalued relative to bonds

20. 01. 2021

We use the EB factor indicator to assess the relative attractiveness of stocks to bonds. This indicator is defined as the difference between the inverse of the global equity P/E or trailing earnings yield and the average global bond yield to maturity. This indicator therefore...

Daily sketch

DAILY SKETCH - Rational bubble

19. 01. 2021

In recent days, the media has become increasingly aware that the current situation in global stock markets could be described as a "rational bubble". Labeled "bubble" due to the fact that the current valuation of global stock markets is extremely high close...

Daily sketch

DAILY SKETCH - Starting valuations are crucial for expected stock returns

18. 01. 2021

As today's charts from the investment company J.P.Morgan Asset Management show, starting valuations are absolutely crucial for stock returns – in the medium term of five years.

Daily sketch

FINANCIAL MARKETS WEEKLY - Stock markets did not perform well

18. 01. 2021

After a period of continuous growth stock markets fell last week, albeit only slightly. As a result, the broadest global stock index MSCI All Country World declined by 1.2%.

Financial markets weekly

DAILY SKETCH - Bond yields to maturity are at all-time lows

15. 01. 2021

From the overall global perspective, bond yields to maturity are at all-time lows. As today's chart shows, 30% of all globally issued bonds carry a negative yield to maturity. A negative bond yield to maturity means that if an investor buys such a bond and holds it until...

Daily sketch

DAILY SKETCH - Financial repression on bond markets

14. 01. 2021

The current situation on the global bond markets can be characterized as the financial repression. This is defined as the situation on the bond markets, when real bond yields to maturity, i.e. nominal yields adjusted for inflation, are negative. According to available data...

Daily sketch

DAILY SKETCH - At the beginning of the year our investment strategy is performing very well

13. 01. 2021

At the beginning of this year, our investment strategy is working very well for us so far. The broadest global stock index MSCI All Country World so far attributes a positive appreciation of 2.1%. At the same time, our main stock bets are doing significantly better. Emerging...

Daily sketch

DAILY SKETCH - Number of zombie companies at an all-time high

12. 01. 2021

Today's chart shows that the share of the so-called zombie companies in OECD countries rose to a new all-time high of around 16% last year. A zombie company is defined as a company whose average operating profit for the last three years is lower than the interest cost of...

Daily sketch

DAILY SKETCH – Global stock markets valuations are at the highest level since 2000

11. 01. 2021

Our global composite proprietary equity valuation is currently at +52% which the highest level since the beginning of 2000 at the peak of the technology bubble. Global stock markets thus appear to be overvalued by approximately 50%. At the same time, this overvaluation is...

Daily sketch

FINANCIAL MARKETS WEEKLY - Stock markets continued to grow strongly

11. 01. 2021

Stock markets continued to grow very strongly over the past week. As a result, the broadest global stock index MSCI All Country World recorded a gain of 2.7%.

Financial markets weekly

DAILY SKETCH - Equities may not be that expensive

08. 01. 2021

According to traditional valuation indicators such as P/E, global stock markets are extremely overvalued. However, if we take into account the massive growth of the global money supply due to the unprecedented quantitative easing of key central banks, the valuation of global...

Daily sketch