Conseq - News

DAILY SKETCH - Bond correction may not have even started yet

24. 02. 2021

Global bond markets are experiencing the worst start to the new year in at least the last five years. The broadest global bond index, Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Bond, has been losing 2.0% since the beginning of the year. At the same time, the average global bond yield...

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DAILY SKETCH - Central European equities are the cheapest in the world from the valuation perspectiv

23. 02. 2021

As today's table shows, Central European equities are the cheapest in the world from the valuation perspective. According to the Central European stock index CECEEUR, the trailing P/E is only 16.1 and the leading or forward P/E is only 12.7. P/B is only 1.2, P/S 1.1 and EV...

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FINANCIAL MARKETS WEEKLY - Financial markets recorded a small correction

22. 02. 2021

Last week, financial markets recorded a small correction in both stocks and bonds. This was probably due to ongoing concerns about rising inflation expectations, which are the highest in the US and the euro area in ten years.

Financial markets weekly

DAILY SKETCH - Correction in the bond markets is so far negligible

22. 02. 2021

So far this year, global bond markets have recorded a correction after last year's extremely strong gains. The broadest global bond index, Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Bond, has declined by 1.9% so far this year. This is most likely due to continuing concerns about...

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DAILY SKETCH - Global money supply is growing at the fastest pace since the crisis year of 2008

19. 02. 2021

Global money supply is currently growing at the fastest pace since the crisis year of 2008. The current year-on-year growth rate is 20%.

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DAILY SKETCH - Bond markets under pressure from rising inflation expectations

18. 02. 2021

Global bond markets have been under pressure from rising inflation expectations since the beginning of the year. In both the US and the euro area, inflationary pressures, as measured by inflation swaps, are currently the highest in 8 years.

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DAILY SKETCH - Passive funds again managed to attract new capital last year

17. 02. 2021

In recent years, we can observe a significant shift towards passive funds in the investment world and at the same time a shift away from active funds. This trend also continued last year.

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DAILY SKETCH - Stock markets are making us very happy this year so far

16. 02. 2021

So far, stock markets are making us very happy this year. The broadest global stock index MSCI All Country World has attributed a highly above-average gain of 6.0% since the beginning of the year. We are especially pleased with the performance of emerging markets, which we are...

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DAILY SKETCH - Total global stocks market cap at a new all-time high of USD 110 trillion

15. 02. 2021

Stock markets continued to grow strongly last week and, according to the broadest global stock index MSCI All Country World, have attributed a highly above-average gain of 5.6% since the beginning of the year. Major stock indices reached new all-time highs over the past week...

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FINANCIAL MARKETS WEEKLY - Stock markets at new all-time highs

15. 02. 2021

Stock markets continued to grow last week and major stock indices have set new historical records. For example, the main US stock index S&P 500 reached a new all-time high at 3935 points.

Financial markets weekly

DAILY SKETCH - US stocks are significantly more expensive than the rest of the world

12. 02. 2021

As today's chart shows, US stocks are significantly more expensive than stocks in the rest of the world. EV/EBITDA valuation multiple of US stocks is currently at 20x, while for the rest of the world it is at 14x. According to the MSCI World ex-US index, there is thus a...

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DAILY SKETCH - The risk of increased inflation is growing strongly

11. 02. 2021

In my opinion, the risk of increased inflation is one of the key risks to further equities growth this year. As the following chart shows, inflation expectations are rising very strongly in both the United States and the euro area. I see the reason for the increased inflation...

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DAILY SKETCH - Decrease of the global equity component from -12.5% to -25.0%

10. 02. 2021

At the Investment Committee on February 3, we decided to reduce the weight of the global equity component against benchmarks from -12.5% to -25.0% between the neutral and the minimum. There were primarily three reasons for this step. First, the very solid performance of global...

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DAILY SKETCH - Emerging markets are finally making us very happy

09. 02. 2021

Within our global equity allocation, emerging markets represent our biggest bet against benchmarks. In emerging markets, our investment portfolios are very much overweight against benchmarks, and we are extremely pleased that in recent months, emerging markets have finally...

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DAILY SKETCH - Warren Buffett valuation indicator indicates a significant overvaluation of global st

08. 02. 2021

Recently, I have often written about the fact that global stock markets are very expensive, mainly due to the extreme overvaluation of US stocks. This view is also supported by the so-called Warren Buffett valuation indicator, which is defined as the ratio of the global stock...

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FINANCIAL MARKETS WEEKLY - Risky assets performed extremely well

08. 02. 2021

Last week risky assets performed extremely well. The broadest global equity index MSCI All Country World attributed a gain of 4.3%. From a regional perspective emerging markets performed better with MSCI Emerging Markets index attributing a gain of 4.9%. Developed markets as...

Financial markets weekly

DAILY SKETCH – US equities are extremely overvalued

05. 02. 2021

For a long time now, I have thought that US equities are extremely overvalued. This is also evidenced by today's chart from the US brokerage house Charles Schwab. The chart shows the share of stocks in the main US stock index S&P 500, which have a valuation indicator...

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DAILY SKETCH - Bonds as the global asset class are the most expensive in history

04. 02. 2021

We assess the attractiveness of bonds by the yield to maturity (YTM), which indicates the average expected annual return if the investor holds the bond until its maturity. From this perspective, bonds as the global asset class are the most expensive in history, as the average...

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DAILY SKETCH - IMF’s World Economic Outlook Update

03. 02. 2021

International Monetary Fund published a new global macroeconomic forecast (World Economic Outlook) last week. According to IMF calculations, the world economy contracted by 3.5% last year, marking the deepest economic recession since World War II. At the same time, it is worth...

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DAILY SKETCH - Low interest rates do not justify record equity valuations

02. 02. 2021

In the financial world, there is currently a heated debate over whether record low interest rates and record low bond yields to maturity justify record P/E equity valuations. I believe that they do not justify them and that the average annual expected equities returns for the...

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