Conseq - News

FINANCIAL MARKETS WEEKLY - Stock markets took a break

26. 04. 2021

After reaching new all-time highs during the week before the last week, stock markets took a break last week. The broadest global equity index MSCI All Country World weakened slightly by 0.2%. The most watched stock index, the US stock index S&P 500, declined by 0.1% and...

Financial markets weekly

DAILY SKETCH - My yearly global equity outlook is slightly negative

22. 04. 2021

My yearly global equity outlook is slightly negative, mainly due to record valuations. MSCI All Country World, the broadest global stock index, is currently valued at P/E of 32 and EV/EBITDA of 17. These are truly unprecedented values. I believe that global equity valuations...

Daily sketch

DAILY SKETCH - US stocks’ expected returns in the coming years are extremely low

21. 04. 2021

Valuation of the main US stock index S&P 500 is currently on a new all-time high. Valuations are even higher than during the technological bubble in 2000. P/S valuation indicator is currently at a new all-time high 3.0.

Daily sketch

DAILY SKETCH - This time it’s different?

20. 04. 2021

The four most dangerous words in investing are as follows: This time it’s different. By this I mean that many naive investors today think that the valuation of stock markets is not at all relevant to the medium-term expected stock returns in the coming years. In the last...

Daily sketch

DAILY SKETCH - Global equity valuation Z-Score at a new all-time high

19. 04. 2021

Z-Score is defined as the value of the variable minus the average, and this difference is then divided by the standard deviation. Z-Score therefore indicates how many standard deviations the current value of the monitored variable is far from the average.

Daily sketch

FINANCIAL MARKETS WEEKLY - Financial markets continue to grow to new all-time highs

19. 04. 2021

Financial markets continued to grow over the past week. Major stock indices have reached new all-time highs. The broadest global stock index MSCI All Country World recorded a gain of 1.5%. The most watched stock index, the US stock index S&P 500, recorded a gain of 1.4...

Financial markets weekly

DAILY SKETCH - 2021 is a year of commodities so far

15. 04. 2021

2021 is a year of commodities so far. S&P GSCI global commodity index has so far attributed a gain of 18%, while the barrel of the North Sea Brent is even 29% more expensive. However, precious metals have not been successful at all. Gold is 8% weaker and silver is 3% weaker.

Daily sketch

DAILY SKETCH - US stocks expected returns in the mid-term horizon are extremely weak

14. 04. 2021

Based on my regression model, I have come to the conclusion that the expected returns of US stocks in the S&P 500 index over the medium term of the next five years are extremely weak. My baseline scenario envisages a stock decline, and at best, US stock performance should...

Daily sketch

DAILY SKETCH - Private equity valuation multiples at new all-time highs

13. 04. 2021

As today's chart shows, not only public stock markets but also recent private equity valuations indicate record valuation multiples. From a global perspective, while in 2010 the key valuation multiple EV/EBITDA above 16 was only in about 10% of transactions, in 2020 this...

Daily sketch

DAILY SKETCH - Today it is more important than ever to apply an active investment approach

12. 04. 2021

As today's chart shows, from a combined perspective, stocks and bonds are the most expensive in history. Therefore, their expected average annual returns over the medium term horizon of the next five years are rather below average.

Daily sketch

FINANCIAL MARKETS WEEKLY - Equities at another new all-time highs

12. 04. 2021

Financial markets continued to grow last week. Stock markets recorded a gain of 2.0% according to the broadest global stock index MSCI All Country World. The most watched stock index, the US stock index S&P 500, recorded a gain of 2.7% and ended the week at a new all-time...

Financial markets weekly

DAILY SKETCH - Key central banks have been printing new money since the beginning of the pandemic wi

08. 04. 2021

As today's chart shows, the key central banks have been printing new money since the beginning of the pandemic with a tremendous speed. Balance sheet of the European Central Bank now totals $ 8.9 trillion, the US Fed $ 7.6 trillion, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) $ 6.8 trillion...

Daily sketch

DAILY SKETCH - Expected bond returns will be rather weak in the coming years

07. 04. 2021

Bonds are currently virtually the most expensive in history as the global asset class, with average global bond yield to maturity – the key indicator of bond attractiveness – now standing at just 1.14%, according to Bloomberg, and remain close to the historical low...

Daily sketch

DAILY SKETCH - We have a slightly negative outlook on equities, however we see one significant risk

06. 04. 2021

We now have a slightly negative outlook on equities. In mid-March, we decided to realize another portion of stock gains, primarily because i) major global stock indices are currently moving at new historical highs, ii) stock valuations are also at historical highs or at the...

Daily sketch

FINANCIAL MARKETS WEEKLY - Major global equity indices at new all-time highs

06. 04. 2021

Over the past week, investors appreciated another fiscal package of US President Joe Biden, which this time will focus on infrastructure. In addition, US macroeconomic data came very positively, specifically from the labor market and the services sector, which accounts for two...

Financial markets weekly

DAILY SKETCH - Our outlook on equities is slightly negative

01. 04. 2021

We now have a slightly negative outlook on equities. In mid-March, we decided to realize another portion of stock gains, primarily because i) major global stock indices are currently moving at new historical highs, ii) stock valuations are also at historical highs or at the...

Daily sketch

DAILY SKETCH - Fed will continue to carry out an extremely loose monetary policy

31. 03. 2021

US Federal Reserve (Fed) met two weeks ago on March 17. At the same time, we did not learn anything fundamentally new from the US central bankers. Fed Governor Jerome Powell reiterated that the US Federal Reserve will not raise key interest rates from the current zero level at...

Daily sketch

DAILY SKETCH - Buffett valuation indicator indicates a significant overvaluation of global stock mar

30. 03. 2021

Warren Buffett valuation indicator – defined as the ratio of global equity market cap on global GDP – is currently close to the all-time high at 123%. This indicates that global stock markets as a whole are significantly overvalued and the expected stock market...

Daily sketch

DAILY SKETCH - Stocks of giant technology companies have been losing heavily so far in March

29. 03. 2021

Stocks of giant technology companies associated in the NYSE FANG+ index have been losing strongly so far in March. NYSE FANG+ index is currently depreciating by a very significant 7.2% in March, while the broadest global stock index MSCI All Country World attributes a gain of...

Daily sketch

FINANCIAL MARKETS WEEKLY - A week with minimal movements in the main financial assets

29. 03. 2021

Last week, we did not notice any major movements in the main stock and bond indices.

Financial markets weekly