Conseq - News

FINANCIAL MARKETS WEEKLY - Financial markets continued to rise modestly

07. 06. 2021

Over the past week, financial markets continued to rise modestly, both stocks and bonds and commodities. The broadest global stock index MSCI All Country World recorded a gain of 0.7%. We were again pleased with the emerging markets. MSCI Emerging Markets index recorded a gain...

Financial markets weekly

FINANCIAL MARKETS WEEKLY - Financial markets continued to rise

31. 05. 2021

Over the past week, financial markets continued to rise, both stocks and bonds and commodities. The broadest global stock index MSCI All Country World recorded a gain of 1.4%. This time we were especially pleased with emerging markets. MSCI Emerging Markets index recorded a...

Financial markets weekly

FINANCIAL MARKETS WEEKLY - Both equities and bonds recorded very modest gains

24. 05. 2021

Over the past week, the broadest global equity index MSCI All Country World recorded a very modest gain of 0.3%. We were pleased that US stocks fell (S&P 500 -0.4%), which we are strongly underweighted against our benchmarks, and on the other hand, Central European stocks ...

Financial markets weekly

DAILY SKETCH - Total equity return has three components

21. 05. 2021

Total equity return has three components in general: corporate fundamentals dynamics such as earnings, change of valuations such as P/E and dividend yield.

Daily sketch

DAILY SKETCH - Global volume of negative yielding bonds has been declining massively since the begin

20. 05. 2021

Global volume of negative yielding bonds has been declining massively since the beginning of the year. While at the beginning of the year the volume of these bonds was $ 17.8 trillion, now it is "only" $ 12.3 trillion, which represents a significant decrease of 31...

Daily sketch

DAILY SKETCH - Our equity bet on the Central European region has been paying off handsomely so far t

19. 05. 2021

So far this year, the Central European region is the region with the best equity performance. CECEEUR index has gained 12% since the beginning of the year, while the broadest global equity index MSCI All Country World has gained "only" 8%.

Daily sketch

DAILY SKETCH - Global equity valuation has slightly declined, however it is still on a higher level

18. 05. 2021

Z-Score valuation variable is defined as the current value of the selected valuation indicator minus the average, and this difference is then divided by the standard deviation. My global equity valuation Z-Score is defined as the average Z-Score for the four basic valuation...

Daily sketch

FINANCIAL MARKETS WEEKLY - Financial markets recorded a mild correction

17. 05. 2021

Global stock and bond indices fell slightly over the past week, probably due to US inflation data. It jumped to 4.2% year on year in April, which was much higher than analysts and economists expected (3.6%). As a result, the broadest global stock index MSCI All Country World...

Financial markets weekly

DAILY SKETCH - US inflation has hit its highest level since 2008

13. 05. 2021

Yesterday's US inflation data showed that the inflation in the world's largest economy reached its highest level since 2008. While year-on-year inflation was 2.6% in March, it was 4.2% in April! At the same time, the consensus of economists and analysts was "only...

Daily sketch

DAILY SKETCH - Fed will not be able to afford to raise interest rates substantially

11. 05. 2021

According to the data from the Fed, the US federal government's debt-to-GDP ratio stood at 129% at the end of last year. As today's chart from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) shows, the US government's debt is set to rise to 200% by 2050!

Daily sketch

DAILY SKETCH - Fed: Vulnerabilities associated with elevated risk appetite are rising

07. 05. 2021

Fed published its semiannual Financial Stability Report yesterday. Let me post here the key quotation from the opening statement by Governor Lael Brainard:

Daily sketch

DAILY SKETCH - Investment Committee decided to further decrease the weight of equities

06. 05. 2021

At yesterday's Investment Committee, we decided to realize another part of stock gains and increase the underweight of global equities from -37.5% to -50% between neutral and minimum. We have sold equities across the world, with the exception of the Central European region...

Daily sketch

DAILY SKETCH - Average global inflation has been rising sharply

05. 05. 2021

The average global inflation rate has been rising sharply, currently standing at 3.2% year on year. At the beginning of the year, it was only 2.0%. Given the recent sharp rise in commodity prices, still unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus in key major economies, and...

Daily sketch

DAILY SKETCH - Global corporate earnings dynamics has been improving tremendously

04. 05. 2021

Global corporate earnings dynamics has been improving tremendously. The current year-on-year decline is already "only" -7%, which is significantly better than the 30% decline in the middle of the last year. At the same time, global corporate earnings have risen by 10...

Daily sketch

FINANCIAL MARKETS WEEKLY - Both equities and bond slightly declined

03. 05. 2021

The broadest global stock index MSCI All Country World fell slightly by 0.3% last week. Therefore, stock markets seem to be running out of steam to some extent. As the second half of the year approaches, investors are increasingly looking at the forecasts for world economic...

Financial markets weekly

DAILY SKETCH - Financial repression

30. 04. 2021

Financial repression describes the situation on global bond markets, where the required yields to maturity of government bonds of many countries are negative. If an investor buys such a bond and holds it until maturity, he will make a loss with certainty.

Daily sketch

DAILY SKETCH - Equities are excelling this year, while bonds have disappointed

29. 04. 2021

Stock markets are doing more than well so far this year, with the broadest global equity index MSCI All Country World attributing a highly above average return of 9% since the beginning of the year. This growth is, of course, due to continued unprecedented monetary stimulus...

Daily sketch

DAILY SKETCH - Global combined equity and bond valuation at a new all-time high

28. 04. 2021

My global combined equity and bond valuation is currently at a new all-time high because combined valuation yield is at the level of only 2.3%. I calculate this combined valuation on the combined portfolio, which contains 60% of equities and 40% of bonds. As regards equities...

Daily sketch

DAILY SKETCH - Sell in May and go away?

27. 04. 2021

One of the most popular stock market sayings is that within a calendar year, investors should ideally realize profits, i.e. sell their shares in May, and wait for a possible market correction (Sell in May and go away). However, historical data shows that it is practically...

Daily sketch

DAILY SKETCH - Mean-reversion as the iron law of financial markets

26. 04. 2021

Total equity return generally has three components: dividend yield, change/dynamics of corporate earnings and change/dynamics of valuations. Dividend yield is the most stable component of total equity return and at the level of major stock indices is around 2-3% per year...

Daily sketch