Conseq - News

FINANCIAL MARKETS WEEKLY - Positive sentiment continued despite very bad macroeconomic data

20. 04. 2020

Over the past week, we have once again learned a set of not quite favorable data from the global economy. Chinese economy fell 6.8 % year on year in the first quarter. This was an even greater decline than economists expected. This is the first decline in the Chinese economy...

Financial markets weekly

CHART OF THE WEEK - Corporate bond credit spreads remain elevated

16. 04. 2020

Credit spreads indicate a probability of default of corporate issuers. For euro-denominated corporate bonds with non-investment speculative ratings (high-yield), the credit margins reached a local maximum of 695 basis points, or 6.95 % on March 23. At this point, stress was...

chart of the week

FINANCIAL MARKETS WEEKLY - Fed announced high-yield bond purchases

14. 04. 2020

The most important news from the last week was that on Friday Fed announced purchases of corporate bonds with non-investment speculative rating (high-yield). It did so for the first time in history and quantitative easing (QE) took another whole new dimension. Now Fed has to...

Financial markets weekly

CHART OF THE WEEK - With their massive asset purchases, central banks have helped to stabilize the g

09. 04. 2020

In mid-March, global financial markets looked almost like in the fall of 2008 after the collapse of US investment bank Lehman Brothers or the European debt crisis in 2011. For example, VIX volatility index reached a historical high of 83 points on 16 March. Corporate bond...

chart of the week

FINANCIAL MARKETS WEEKLY - Positive sentiment from last week failed to keep

06. 04. 2020

In addition to continuing the massive expansion of the COVID 19 pandemic on both sides of the Atlantic, investors' attention was focused on new hard macroeconomic data last week. And they were not very pleased. The US labor market is extremely weak. Last week, 6.6 million...

Financial markets weekly

CHART OF THE WEEK - Global stock markets bottomed out last week, however it is still too early to ce

02. 04. 2020

Global stock markets bottomed out last week strengthening by approximately 10-15 %. However at the end of the last week and during this week stock markets have begun to stagnate or rather slightly decline again.

chart of the week

FINANCIAL MARKETS WEEKLY - Finally a small improvement of the market sentiment

30. 03. 2020

Last week, things moved for the better, at least in terms of developments on global financial markets. In particular, we can thank two key central banks, the US Fed and the European Central Bank.

Financial markets weekly

CHART OF THE WEEK - World trade dynamics significantly declined already in January

26. 03. 2020

According to yesterday published data the world trade dynamics declined by 2.1 % y/y in January which is the biggest decline since the global financial crisis 11 years ago. Therefore international trade began to significantly decline even before the worldwide outbreak of the...

chart of the week

FINANCIAL MARKETS WEEKLY - Bad mood continued

23. 03. 2020

Global stock markets fell by 12 % last week. Since the beginning of March they are lower by 23 % and since the beginning of the year even by 30 %. Of course, there is nothing else to blame but the massive spread of the global pandemic COVID19, at the moment mainly in Europe...

Financial markets weekly

CHART OF THE WEEK - Global equities have reached very cheap valuation levels

19. 03. 2020

Valuations are the key for mid-term to long-term equities performance, i.e. relations between equities’ prices and fundamentals such as revenues and cash flows. The lower valuations the higher expected future equities return, and vice versa

chart of the week

FINANCIAL MARKETS WEEKLY - US equities entered a bear market after 11 years

16. 03. 2020

US equities entered a bear market after 11 years which is defined as a higher than 20 % decline from the market top, in this case in the middle of August. Of course, the massive spread of the coronavirus epidemic in Europe and the US is to blame.

Financial markets weekly

CHART OF THE WEEK - Global bull market after 11 years ended

12. 03. 2020

Global bull market after 11 years ended. US stocks index Dow Jones Industrial Average recorded yesterday a decline from the previous all-time high on 12 February of 20.3 %. Bear markets condition has been thus fulfilled, i.e. decline from the previous peak of more than 20 %.

chart of the week

FINANCIAL MARKETS WEEKLY - Biggest volatility since the European debt crisis

09. 03. 2020

Extremely volatile trading was present on global financial markets during the past week. VIX index, the fear gauge, rose to the highest level since the European debt crisis in 2011 as it reached the level of 42 points.

Financial markets weekly

CHART OF THE WEEK - Global stock markets cheapened

05. 03. 2020

Our major propriety composite valuation indicator was at the level of +13 % at the end of 2019 which indicated to us that global stocks markets were a bit overvalued. However due to massive sell-off from the last week, the biggest since the global financial crisis in 2008...

chart of the week

FINANCIAL MARKETS WEEKL - Worst week since the global financial crisis in 2008

02. 03. 2020

Global markets of risky assets recorded the worst week since the global financial crisis in 2008. This was due to the very rapid spread of the coronavirus epidemic from China to the world. In Europe, Italy is the focus.

Financial markets weekly

CHART OF THE WEEK - Global money supply dynamics is negative

27. 02. 2020

Global money supply dynamics in the most followed month-on-month comparison is negative, currently at around -0.5 %. As well in the year-on-year comparison the dynamics is very weak at the level of +3.6 % which is significantly below the nominal global GDP growth.

chart of the week

FINANCIAL MARKETS WEEKLY - Coronavirus impacting the global economy

24. 02. 2020

Coronavirus dominated media headlines again in the past week. IMF decreased its forecast for the global economy growth due to the epidemic while significantly decreased its forecast for Chinese economy growth. Virus is also harshly impacting global supply chains. Moreover...

Financial markets weekly

CHART OF THE WEEK - US equities are strongly overvalued

20. 02. 2020

Trend of the past years when US equities have showed significantly better performance should in our view gradually reverse (mean-reversion). And this primarily due to valuation reasons. We are of the view that US equities are tremendously overvalued. The following table...

chart of the week

FINANCIAL MARKETS WEEKLY - Positive mood continued

17. 02. 2020

Last week headlines in the media were again dominated by news about the coronavirus epidemic, its expected impact on the world economy, and last but not least, we witnessed relatively weak macroeconomic data from the Eurozone and, in particular, Germany, whose economy...

Financial markets weekly

CHART OF THE WEEK - World trade dynamics is declining strongly

13. 02. 2020

World economy dynamics has achieved its peak at the turn of 2017 and 2018 and since then has been slightly slowing down. Among the indicators which illustrates this development quite well is world goods trade dynamics.

chart of the week